Vision & Horizon Scanner

First assess, then choose

Circularity requires more than just more efficient production or better recycling. It also involves how products are designed, used, maintained, taken back, and reused. This touches on material availability, supply chain dependencies, regulations, market demands and trends, and societal expectations.

That is why it is valuable to take time for reflection and analysis before jumping straight to solutions. By exploring together what is changing, what matters, and which direction is desirable, we create a shared starting point. This makes decisions more focused, conversations more meaningful, and next steps better grounded.

The methods in this module have already been used in many product groups to develop Roadmaps. But you don’t have to launch a full-scale Roadmap process to benefit from them. They can also provide valuable insights when used as the basis for a single productive work session or strategic discussion.

Three Interrelated Teaching Methods

The module consists of three parts. You can use them together as a comprehensive exploration or individually, depending on what best suits your needs, schedule, or stage.

1. Vision Tool: Where do you want to go?

With the Vision Tool, you develop a vision for the future of the product group. You begin by defining the system, the product level, and the market segment. You then use the “Time Traveler” exercise to break free from today’s limitations and explore what the product group might look like in 2035. The Vision Tool helps give voice, energy, and direction to a shared ambition.

2. Broad Prosperity: Why Does It Matter?

With Broad Prosperity, you explore why the vision for the future is socially relevant. You examine its effects here and now, as well as in the future and elsewhere. This reveals how the product group relates to issues such as the environment, health, work, material prosperity, resources, safety, and impacts in other countries. Broad Prosperity helps ensure that circularity is not viewed solely from a technical or economic perspective, but is linked to social value.

3. PESTEL: What's coming your way?

PESTEL helps you identify external trends. You examine political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors that will influence the product group in the coming years.

PESTEL helps provide a clearer picture of opportunities, risks, and enabling conditions. Which developments are accelerating progress toward the desired direction? Which ones are hindering it? And what do companies, supply chain partners, governments, or industry organizations need to take into account?

Frequently asked questions

• Does the Vision & Horizon Explorer also work for a technically complex product?

  Yes. For a product with many subsystems, components, and long international supply chains, you choose a level of decomposition—for example, a single part or a material level. This keeps the analysis manageable. For simpler products, such as furniture or packaging, defining the scope at the product level is sufficient.

• Who should be at the table?

  You’ll get the most out of it by combining perspectives from across the supply chain—such as manufacturers, suppliers, designers, users, maintenance providers, and processors—supplemented by knowledge of policy and the market. You can also get started on your own for an initial, quick exploration.

• Are there any worked examples?

  Yes. The scope, the vision for the future, and the Broad Prosperity analysis were developed for two product groups: rotor blades for offshore wind farms and banking services for the business market.

• How do I record the results?

  All the exercises are compiled into downloadable worksheets. On these worksheets, you’ll note your scope, your vision for the future, the most important “Broad Prosperity” effects, and the PESTEL factors.